Pinotblogger: the Capozzi Winery blog

You may have heard about AOL’s ridiculous screw-up in releasing 3 months of around 650,000 of their users search histories earlier this week. Since the file was leaked, dozens of online, searchable databases have sprung up. While most of the blogoshpere has been focusing on finding creepy users with disturbing search histories, I’m positive there are thousands of marketers out there quietly plugging away, trying to tease from the data some clue to understanding how the consumer mind works.

After spending some time with the database myself (purely out of curiosity, I assure you) I’m left thinking that there are two men who already know how the modern consumer thinks, and they’ve already written a bestselling book all about it.

But first, a couple of redacted search histories.

First up, User 118208.

User 118208
rolex
yacht master
kmart
citibank
pickup lines
power tool
myspace.com
match.com
auto trader
opus one

Let me start by qualifying this by admitting that there is no way to tell how many people actually used each account in the database. Therefore it can be hard to draw conclusions about who actually searched for a term, much less why.

That said, here we have what appears to be the stereotypical upper class wine drinker. He (I’ll assume) is interested in Rolexes (specifically Yacht-master, the Yachtsman’s choice) and ultra luxury Napa Valley Cabernet producer Opus One. Finances are important to him and so is his social life. He might be single, given the pick up lines, match.com and myspace searches, or he might have a son living at home.

But what is fascinating to me, and perhaps a little out of place, is the Kmart search. Here is a guy obviously concerned with image and the finer things in life – in building his personal brand as it were – and yet he deigns to shop at Kmart (the fall apart store, we used to say as kids).

Heres another, User 8249292:

User 8249292
pasadena restaurants
san francisco weather
lisa rinna hairstyle
napa ca wineries
goodwill charities
southwest airlines
lands end
leather jackets
maui monthlycondo rentals
crochet vest patterns
recipes
sandals resorts
food network
quintessa winery
sheraton kauai
opus one
rubicon estate 2002
chateau bernadotte 1996
volvo

Another person or couple who clearly have expensive tastes. She (we’ll call this one she for balance) is the perfectly stereotypical wine drinker. She loves food, enjoys cooking and knows her wine. We could probably safely assume that she’s middle aged, and if still married is probably an empty nester. She is interested in taking a romantic trip, perhaps even renting a condo in Maui for a month, and she wants to bring some Opus One, a ‘96 Chateau Bernadotte and an 02 Rubicon with her. Sounds like a blast.

And how exactly does she want to get to Hawaii?
Why via Southwest Airlines, Americas premier discount airline.

For those who’ve read Michael Silverstein and Neil Fiske’s instant business classic Trading Up, you’ll recognize this type of behavior immediately. These are search profiles of well off folks who have no problem in trading down for products that they don’t feel an emotional connection to or where they don’t find value, so that they can trade up even higher in the product categories that they do care about.

It’s the classic image of the guy in the Mercedes parking his ultra expensive luxury automobile and heading into Costco. I think this type of behavior has become so prevalent that it’s almost not even remarkable anymore. Consumers aren’t stupid, and even those with wealth don’t part with their hard earned cash easily for products they aren’t emotionally invested in.

The trading up phenomenon is even more profound in people of more limited means. Here’s the search record of User 5013684.

User 5013684
wal mart.com
king ranch
corona stuff
corona stuff
corona stuff
corona ice chest
corona stuff
nw arkansas morning news
callaway warbird golf head covers
sore mouth
ebay
crying baby
crying baby
crying baby
crying baby
crying baby
crying baby
baron wine
corona stuff
corona stuff
callaway golf head covers
hot
hot babes

Here we have a guy toiling away in Arkansas, dealing with a crying baby and a sore mouth. All he wants to do is relax with a cold Corona or perhaps a bottle of wine and somehow make that darn baby shut up (I can relate!).

Yet amidst all this is the tell tale sign of a guy who saves his extra cash so that he can trade up for that one special product he really cares about: his Callaway Warbird driver. He just has to have the special golf head cover branded specifically for the driver, because he wouldn’t want people to think he was swinging just any old club. No sir, he’s got himself a Callaway and he’s gonna make sure everyone knows it.

Walmart and the other discount retailers who work so hard to bring us lower prices are fueling the New Luxury revolution. They are allowing guys like User 5013684 to afford to trade up in the category he finds most important to him by freeing up extra disposable income. Walmart is also doing the same thing for the wealthy as well, except instead of one category, they are trading up in several and buying the top of the line in each.

The take away for me is simply this: everyone is a potential customer. No matter what the price of the wine is, the only really important question is: does my wine connect with my customers on an emotional level?

If I can answer that question with a yes, I’ll do great business no matter what happens to the economy or what cultivar happens to be trendy at the moment.